Подача осуществлялась в соответствии с обязательствами государств-членов.
В соответствии с мерами борьбы с последствиями экономической политики, направленными на компенсацию последствий войны в России в Украине, направленными на компенсацию гражданам роста цен на энергоносители и топливо и защиту наиболее уязвимых групп и наиболее распространённых секторов. Они также объясняют макроэкономический и налогово-бюджетный сценарий для отчетного периода . Новая макроэкономическая основа была одобрена Независимым органом по фискальной записке (AIReF).
Программа стабильности на 2022-2025 годы
Программа стабильно включает прогнозируемый макроэкономический сценарий на период 2022-2025 гг., основанный на самой доступной информации.
Первый вице-президент парламента Испании отметил, что «в нынешних условиях высокая неопределенность из-за международной геополитической ситуации и резкого роста цен на энергоносители, макроэкономический и фискальный сценарий подтверждены принципом оценки осмотрительности».
Испанская экономика прогнозирует экономический рост в течение всего периода, который будет наиболее ожидаем в 2022 и 2023 годах с прогнозируемыми темпами роста ВВП на уровне 4,3% и 3,5% соответственно.
Согласно статистическим данным международных и международных организаций, ожидается, что рост будет опережать рост в основных странах с развитой экономикой, что охват населения охватит цикл, начавшийся в 2021 году.
Рост цен на энергоносители вместе с негативным прогнозом на основные европейские экономики замедляют постпандемическое восстановление экономики Испании, которая ускорилась во второй половине 2021 года.
Тем не менее, рост испанской экономики будет хорошим темпом в 2022 году, что будет соответствовать, прежде всего, созданию рабочих мест, инвестициям в капитальные товары и интеллектуальной собственности, восстановлению туризма и стимулированию инвестиций и реформе Плана восстановления. .
Рост цен на энергоносители и эффект увеличения роста общего уровня цен на энергию с приходом 2021 года, который усилился в начале 2022 года из-за исследования. Однако все прогнозы замедления роста со второго полугодия 2022 года примерно до 2% в следующем году.
В этой связи макроэкономическая основа предполагает высокий спрос на показатели роста двигателя, и в частности инвестиции, которые, по оценкам, увеличатся в этом году до 9,3% при поддержке Плана восстановления, развертывание которого предполагает увеличение оборотов в 2022 и 2023 годах. за счет полной реализации инвестиций, закрепив смену модели восстановления после прошлых кризисов.
Сосредоточенность Плана на стратегических проектах привлечет дополнительные частные инвестиции, повысит коэффициент мультипликации Средства и создаст побочный эффект для экономики в целом. Инвестициями с текущими преобразованиями стимулируют преобразование производственной структуры, что приводит к повышению производительности и потенциальному росту.
Динамизм туристической деятельности станет определяющим элементом экономического роста в 2022 году, при этом восстановление составит 80% от уровня, зарегистрированного в 2019 году, чему будет способствовать более ограниченное воздействие волн вируса благодаря высоким показателям вакцинации и восстановлению основные исходные рынки.
В период 2022-2025 гг. занятость по-прежнему будет двигателем экономического роста, закрепляя траекторию снижения уровня безработицы, который снизится с 14,8% в 2021 г. до 9,6% в 2025 г., что будет сопровождаться улучшением качества занятости. , благодаря стимулированию инвестиций и реформ Плана восстановления, особенно положительному эффекту трудовой реформы.
Учитывая крайне неопределенную международную обстановку, макроэкономическая картина прогнозирует, что внешний спрос окажет негативное влияние на рост в 2022 и 2023 годах.
Progressive deficit and debt reduction
The Stability Programme submitted to the European Commission includes the fiscal outlook for the period 2022 to 2025.
Economic momentum, strong job creation and higher growth will allow progress to be made on the fiscal consolidation path started in 2018 and interrupted by the pandemic. In 2021, the deficit is already 3.3 percentage points lower than in the previous year, 1.6 percentage points lower than projected in the previous stability programme, as is the debt-to-GDP ratio.
The scenario outlined in the Stability Programme shows a progressive decline in the deficit over the four years. Thus, the year 2022 will end with a rate of 5% of GDP, compared to 6.76% at the end of 2021. A further decline to 3.9% is projected for the following year, continuing to fall back in 2024 to 3.3% and ending in 2025 at 2.9% of GDP.
In line with the decline in the government deficit, the debt-to-GDP ratio will be further reduced to 109.7% in 2025.
This progressive correction of the deficit follows that recorded in 2021, when it fell to 6.76% from 10.08% in 2020. This was a reduction of 3.3 GDP points, the largest in the historical series without financial assistance.
The improvement in public finances last year took place without adopting austerity policies or social cuts. On the contrary, it found its basis in the strength of economic growth and in the strong creation of quality jobs, made possible by the income and productive fabric support measures implemented in 2020 and maintained in 2021. 80 billion euros was invested between these two years to mitigate the economic and social consequences of the pandemic and provide a better starting point for recovery.
Margin for further action as deficit falls
The budget closing figures for 2021 were better than anticipated by the government itself, which put its forecast at 8.4% of GDP. They were also better than estimated by independent national and international agencies. This shows the realism and prudence with which the executive makes its forecasts.
The deficit in 2021 was 19.5 billion euros lower than the government’s forecast. These improved developments provide room for manoeuvre to adapt revenue and expenditure decisions to the needs of the geopolitical environment.
To this effect, the reduction in the deficit envisaged in the Stability Programme for the period 2022 to 2025, which places it below 3% at the end of the period, is compatible with the package of measures approved by the government to counteract the effects of the war on the economy, fundamentally on the evolution of prices.
The government has taken fiscal measures to lower electricity bills for all households, businesses and the self-employed; it has approved subsidies for refuelling for individuals, businesses and the self-employed; and it has implemented direct aid for the most sensitive sectors, from transport to gas-intensive and electro-intensive industries, as well as agriculture, livestock and fishing. It has also considered the most vulnerable households, increasing the Minimum Basic Income by 15% and increasing the scope of the thermal and electricity social vouchers.
In short, the Stability Programme shows the executive’s roadmap in which its commitment to deficit and debt reduction and its objective of budgetary stability is compatible with the adoption of measures to support citizens and companies when circumstances so require.
Developments by sub-sector
As regards the forecasts for the evolution of the deficit by sub-sector, the central government will continue to be responsible for the bulk of the public deficit throughout the period, due to the support it has provided over the last few years to the rest of the sub-sectors, including the Regional Governments, the Social Security and local bodies, so that they could provide the public services for which they are responsible with excellent quality without being affected by the difficult recent situation marked by the pandemic.
Thus, the central government deficit will be 3.8% in 2022 (down significantly from 6.1% in 2021), falling to 3.4% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2025.
The Regional Governments’ deficit will stand at 0.8% at the end of this year, falling to 0.1% in 2023. In the last two years of the period, this sub-sector will move to a surplus position of 0.2% of GDP for 2024 and 2025 alike.
Local bodies, however, will record surpluses over the whole period, starting at 0.1% at the end of this year and rising to between 0.2% and 0.3% in the remaining years.
The Social Security Funds will halve their deficit from 1% in 2021 to 0.5% in 2022 and, according to the roadmap, will have cut it to 0.2% of GDP by 2025.
Support to the regional governments
The Minister for Treasury and Public Function, María Jesús Montero, has highlighted the unprecedented support given by the central government to the rest of the sub-sectors, especially the Regional Governments. Thanks to this support, this sub-sector closed the 2021 financial year in a balanced budget position for the first time.
It is this extraordinary support provided by the central government to the territories that explains why, in national accounts, the total public revenues of the regional governments have increased by 24.6% in the last four years. In the same period, central government revenues have grown by less than half, i.e. by 10%.
The extraordinary resources transferred from the Government to the Regional Governments have been aimed at protecting the Welfare State and avoiding cuts in areas such as health and public education, as well as sustaining the productive fabric most affected by the pandemic in each region.
Measures to combat the effects of war
As the government has done in the last two years to alleviate the economic consequences of the pandemic, it has now put in place a package of measures to combat the economic effects of the war and to protect families, workers, the self-employed and businesses, which won approval in the Spanish Lower House of Parliament on Thursday. As Montero insisted, these measures are in line with the recommendations of the IMF and the European Commission.
Actions include a discount of up to 20 cents per litre of fuel for all types of consumers, be they individuals, professionals or companies, with a budgetary impact of more than 1.4 billion euros; direct aid to the transport sector worth 450 million euros; direct aid to agriculture of 364 million euros; direct aid to fishing of 68 million euros; and support of 500 million euros for the gas-intensive and electro-intensive industry.
Social measures amounting to 500 million euros have also been adopted to support the most vulnerable families, including the 15% increase in the Minimum Basic Income and the extension of the scope of the thermal social voucher and the electricity social voucher.
This is in addition to the largest electricity tax cut in history, which will mean savings of 12 billion euros for all types of consumers, be they households, businesses or the self-employed, if it is extended until the end of 2022. The government lowered the VAT on electricity from 21% to 10% in June 2021; it suspended the Tax on the Value of Electricity Production; and it reduced the Special Tax on Electricity to the minimum allowed by the European Commission.
As the Minister for Treasury and Public Function concluded, the Stability Programme shows how the Spanish economy is capable of adapting to a context of uncertainty and is committed to strengthening public services, while also fulfilling the commitment to progressively reduce fiscal imbalances.
National Reform Programme
Комитет делегатов по экономическим вопросам также присоединился к Национальной программе реформ в Европейской комиссии.
План качества реформы и инвестиций, предусмотренный Планом восстановления, который включает рекомендации Европейского союза в Европейский семестр.